Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4885 LANDED 4:53 PM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

WN 4885 · DEN → TPA

took off 11:58 AM MT · landed 4:53 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4885 · DEN → TPA

Odds over time