Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4886 LANDED 7:50 AM MT, ~16 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

WN 4886 · DTW → DEN

took off 7:12 AM ET · landed 7:50 AM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ DTW is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4886 · DTW → DEN

Odds over time