Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4956
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 4956 · SEA → AUS
departs 11:10 AM PT · arrives 5:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 50%
Thu 10/1 46%
Fri 10/2 39%
Sun 10/4 44%
Mon 10/5 36%
Tue 10/6 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 44% of the time recently
↑
11am departures from SEA are often late
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at AUS that day
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.04 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.