Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 631 LANDED 3:23 PM PT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

WN 631 · SJD → SNA

took off · landed 3:23 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SNA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SNA at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJD

↓ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SJD (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

SNA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 631 · SJD → SNA

Odds over time