Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 4023 LANDED 8:11 PM ET, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

YV 4023 · IAD → SBN

took off 6:56 PM ET · landed 8:11 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility8.8 mi Precipnone

SBN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4023 · IAD → SBN

Odds over time