Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3427 LANDED 11:22 AM ET, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 3427 · CLT → EWR

took off 10:01 AM ET · landed 11:22 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ EWR is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3427 · CLT → EWR

Odds over time