Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3474
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
YX 3474 · BGR → EWR
departs 7:00 AM ET · arrives 8:43 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 9%
Mon 10/5 9%
Fri 10/9 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave BGR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at BGR that day
↑
BGR is prone to delays
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from BGR are usually not late
Weather at each end
BGR (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.22 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.