Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3474
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 3474 · BGR → EWR
departs 7:00 AM ET · arrives 8:43 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave BGR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
BGR is prone to delays
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at EWR that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
BGR (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.03 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.