Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3474
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
YX 3474 · BGR → EWR
departs 7:00 AM ET · arrives 8:43 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5 10%
Fri 10/9 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave BGR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
BGR is prone to delays
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
BGR (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.75 mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.