Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3540 LANDED 11:08 PM ET, ~23 MIN EARLY

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

YX 3540 · IAD → PIT

took off 10:36 PM ET · landed 11:08 PM ET (scheduled 10:30 PM ET → 11:36 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PIT?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 10pm departures from IAD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility8.8 mi Precipnone

PIT (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility9.6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3540 · IAD → PIT

Odds over time

How late did it get to PIT?