Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4415 LANDED 3:17 PM CT, ~2 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4415 · DCA → MSN

took off 2:36 PM ET · landed 3:17 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into MSN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility9.6 mi Precipnone

MSN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4415 · DCA → MSN

Odds over time