Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4415 LANDED 7:57 PM ET, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

YX 4415 · MSN → DCA

took off 5:17 PM CT · landed 7:57 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

MSN (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,667 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4415 · MSN → DCA

Odds over time