Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4421 LANDED 4:30 PM CT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4421 · RDU → BNA

took off 4:21 PM ET · landed 4:30 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from RDU are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9.2 mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4421 · RDU → BNA

Odds over time