Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4435 LANDED 1:11 PM CT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4435 · DCA → DSM

took off 12:13 PM ET · landed 1:11 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility9.6 mi Precipnone

DSM (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility7.8 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4435 · DCA → DSM

Odds over time