YX 4444 · MEM → DCA

departs 6:23 PM CT · arrives 9:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from MEM are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4444 · MEM → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?