Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4465 LANDED 9:53 AM ET, ~10 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

YX 4465 · BOS → DCA

took off 8:37 AM ET · landed 9:53 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ DCA is busy at that time

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.01 in

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4465 · BOS → DCA

Odds over time