Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4475 LANDED 12:36 AM ET, ~9 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

YX 4475 · BOS → ROC

took off 11:42 PM ET · landed 12:36 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±1 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.03 in

ROC (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility8.8 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4475 · BOS → ROC

Odds over time