Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4509 LANDED 8:10 PM ET, ~2 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4509 · EYW → PHL

took off 5:40 PM ET · landed 8:10 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.25 mi, 1.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at EYW that day

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

EYW (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.80 in

PHL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4509 · EYW → PHL

Odds over time