Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4510 LANDED 5:21 PM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

YX 4510 · BOS → DCA

took off 3:44 PM ET · landed 5:21 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ BOS is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.01 in

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4510 · BOS → DCA

Odds over time