Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4516
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
YX 4516 · BOS → TVC
departs 10:10 AM ET · arrives 12:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 15%
Thu 10/1 17%
Fri 10/2 11%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at TVC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TVC?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at TVC that day
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↑
BOS is busy at that time
↓
This flight has been late 10% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.03 in
TVC (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.