Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4545
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
YX 4545 · ACK → PHL
departs 3:38 PM ET · arrives 5:28 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 24%
Thu 10/1 8%
Fri 10/2 14%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave ACK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ACK (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.