Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4567 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4567 · PHL → MVY

departs 10:30 AM ET · arrives 11:52 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at MVY more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MVY?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↑ PHL is busy at that time

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Arrivals into MVY at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MVY (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4567 · PHL → MVY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MVY?