Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4567
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4567 · PHL → MVY
departs 10:30 AM ET · arrives 11:52 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Sat 10/3 6%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at MVY more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MVY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at MVY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MVY?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at PHL that day
↑
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.23 in
MVY (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.