Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4567
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4567 · PHL → MVY
departs 10:30 AM ET · arrives 11:52 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 6%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at MVY more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±0 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MVY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at MVY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MVY?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Arrivals into MVY at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MVY (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.