Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4618
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
YX 4618 · SAV → DCA
departs 9:21 AM ET · arrives 11:12 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 16%
Fri 10/2 11%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave SAV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DCA is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late nan% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
9am departures from SAV are usually not late
Weather at each end
SAV (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 9.6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.