Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4639 LANDED 4:02 PM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4639 · YHZ → PHL

took off 3:07 PM ADT · landed 4:02 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at YHZ

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

YHZ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

PHL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4639 · YHZ → PHL

Odds over time