Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4640 LANDED 9:24 PM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4640 · PHL → DCA

took off 8:53 PM ET · landed 9:24 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 8pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility9.6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4640 · PHL → DCA

Odds over time