Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4645 LANDED 4:34 PM CT, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4645 · ORD → STL

took off 3:45 PM CT · landed 4:34 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4645 · ORD → STL

Odds over time