YX 4668 · DCA → BOS

departs 6:55 PM ET · arrives 8:38 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±2 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at BOS that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4668 · DCA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?