Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4686
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
YX 4686 · BNA → DCA
departs 7:25 PM CT · arrives 10:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.