Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4687 LANDED 12:29 PM ET, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4687 · BOS → JFK

took off 11:47 AM ET · landed 12:29 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 11am departures from BOS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.03 in

JFK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4687 · BOS → JFK

Odds over time