Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4694
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
YX 4694 · DCA → MCI
departs 8:59 PM ET · arrives 10:49 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCI that day
↑
Arrivals into MCI at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 9.6 mi Precip none
MCI (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.39 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.