Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4715 LANDED 12:23 AM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

YX 4715 · BOS → MDT

took off 11:23 PM ET · landed 12:23 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at MDT more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDT

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.03 in

MDT (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4715 · BOS → MDT

Odds over time