Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4726 IN THE AIR (OFF 8:57 PM ET, ETA 10:57 PM ET)

Tuesday, September 29 Today

YX 4726 · IND → BOS

took off 8:57 PM ET · expected to land 10:57 PM ET (scheduled 6:35 PM ET → 8:59 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BOS?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
26%
Over 2 hours late
74%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ BOS is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IND

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IND (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4726 · IND → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?