Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4736 LANDED 6:15 PM ET, ~1 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

YX 4736 · LGA → DCA

took off 5:33 PM ET · landed 6:15 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4736 · LGA → DCA

Odds over time