Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4801 IN THE AIR (OFF 5:28 PM ET, ETA 5:56 PM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

YX 4801 · DCA → PHL

took off 5:28 PM ET · expected to land 5:56 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4801 · DCA → PHL

Odds over time