YX 5729 · DCA → LEX

departs 9:05 PM ET · arrives 10:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LEX?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LEX

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LEX (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5729 · DCA → LEX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LEX?