Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5741
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
YX 5741 · ORD → JFK
departs 6:00 AM CT · arrives 9:24 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 14%
Fri 10/2 7%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
6am departures from ORD are often late
↑
JFK is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.