Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5831
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
YX 5831 · BOS → LGA
departs 6:00 PM ET · arrives 7:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 30%
Thu 10/1 19%
Fri 10/2 60%
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 33%
Tue 10/6 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
6pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.03 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.