AA 1074 · MIA → BOS

departs 6:20 PM ET · arrives 9:45 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±3 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ 6pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at BOS that day

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.31 in

BOS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1074 · MIA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?