Schedule: FAA flight plans.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1174 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

AA 1174 · JFK → MIA

took off 7:19 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 6:50 PM ET → 10:22 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from JFK are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1174 · JFK → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?