Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1199 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

AA 1199 · MIA → DFW

departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 5:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

65% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
11%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.16 in

DFW (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1199 · MIA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?