Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Wednesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1258 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

AA 1258 · CLT → SAT

took off 7:58 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 6:34 PM ET → 8:40 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1258 · CLT → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?