Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1282 LANDED 9:13 AM MT, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

AA 1282 · EWR → PHX

took off 7:35 AM ET · landed 9:13 AM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1282 · EWR → PHX

Odds over time