AA 1288 · ORD → RIC

departs 7:02 PM CT · arrives 10:11 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RIC?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
30%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

RIC (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1288 · ORD → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?