AA 1359 · CLT → SDF

departs 3:45 PM ET · arrives 5:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1359 · CLT → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?