AA 1371 · DFW → DSM

departs 10:05 PM CT · arrives 11:58 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
25%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
20%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 10pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ DSM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

DSM (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip1.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1371 · DFW → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?