AA 1400 · MIA → ATL

departs 9:45 PM ET · arrives 11:46 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ 9pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ATL that day

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.16 in

ATL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1400 · MIA → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?