AA 1423 · DCA → PWM

took off 4:12 PM ET · landed 5:22 PM ET (scheduled 2:31 PM ET → 4:22 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PWM?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi forecast at PWM that day

↑ 2pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ PWM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PWM (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1423 · DCA → PWM

Odds over time

How late did it get to PWM?