Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1451 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30

AA 1451 · LAX → PHL

departs 6:05 AM PT · arrives 2:21 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from LAX are usually not late

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1451 · LAX → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?